Steel Prices Soar 52% in a Year Due to Trump Tariffs

U.S. steel prices have surged to their highest point in over four years due to President Donald Trump's tariffs, which have limited foreign supplies. This situation has benefited domestic producers but increased costs for American manufacturers. According to Fasmarkets, the price for hot-rolled coil, a widely used form of steel that serves as a U.S. benchmark, has been consistently rising over the past year, climbing 52% to $1,255 per short ton.

This price level was last seen in May 2022. Inflation presents a significant challenge for Trump’s Republican Party as the midterm elections approach, with the steel price rally highlighting the effects of tariffs and Trump's efforts to rejuvenate American steel production. While domestic mills and steelworkers have gained from this situation, manufacturers, builders, and data center developers have faced increased burdens.

According to Josh Spoores, principal steel researcher at CRU Group, a data and analysis firm, the limitations on steel imports combined with an ever-changing trade policy involving key partners like Canada and Mexico have prompted buyers to reduce import orders, resulting in a supply shortage. The US, although a net importer of steel, has seen a significant decline in overseas shipments this year. Data from the American Iron and Steel Institute indicates a 14% drop in finished steel imports, totaling about 13 million tons in the first nine months of 2026, which has consequently reduced the import share of the domestic market to 16% from last year's 19%.

As domestic mills are expected to cut activity for routine maintenance, domestic supplies are anticipated to tighten as the year comes to a close, with Fastmarkets projecting that over 1 million tons of production will be impacted from September to December. Steel buyers should brace for further price increases, as Richard Bourke, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, notes that ferrous scrap costs, a crucial steel input, are rising earlier than usual this year. Additionally, negotiations between producers and customers for 2027 contracts appear to be leaning in favor of mills, with discounts likely to be lower than in recent years, Bourke added.

American steel manufacturers, including Nucor Corp., Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., and Steel Dynamics Inc., have thrived due to robust domestic pricing and diminished foreign competition. As the leading producer of industrial metal, Nucor has experienced a significant rise in its share value, climbing over 50% this year. The sector is poised to announce its third-quarter earnings soon, with analysts forecasting growth in both sales and profits.

Despite a temporary dip in steel stocks last month after Trump's announcement of a planned $15 billion Mesabi Metallics plant in Iowa, which aims to produce 10 million tons of steel annually by the decade's end, American hot-rolled coil maintains its status as the world's most expensive, with its premium over international markets widening. Currently, prices are about two-thirds higher than in Europe and nearly three times those in China, which continues to export near-record amounts of steel despite resistance from trading partners.

The 50% tariffs imposed by Trump on imported steel have significantly disrupted trade with Canadian producers. Last month, Cleveland-Cliffs, one of the largest US steelmakers, revealed it would indefinitely idle some operations at its Canadian subsidiary, Stelco, potentially impacting up to 500 workers. This decision has led to a confrontation with the Canadian government, which has threatened legal action against Cleveland-Cliffs over employment commitments made when it acquired Stelco for C$3.4 billion ($2.4 billion) in 2024.