Indonesian MHP Nickel and High-Grade Matte Prices Surge Amid Demand Growth, While Cobalt Prices Decline

Glencore attributes a 52% drop in cobalt production to Congo’s export limits and its own shift toward copper, as Indonesia considers steeper reductions to nickel ore quotas for 2027. In early November, Indonesian officials indicated that next year’s quotas could be cut more sharply than this year’s, potentially subjecting both major battery-metal suppliers to government-imposed supply constraints. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), after lifting a months-long export ban in October 2025, capped cobalt exports at 96,600 metric tons annually for 2026 and 2027.

How much nickel and cobalt will reach the market next year will depend increasingly on decisions in Jakarta and Kinshasa, as well as on mine output. For buyers of battery cells, cathode materials, and stainless steel, this makes supply planning a matter of timing. Cecep Mochammad Yasin, director of mineral business development at Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said quotas for 2027 could be cut more sharply than those for 2026 and would be based on domestic smelters’ optimal operating capacity rather than just their raw material needs. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), a Chinese metals pricing agency, reported his remarks. No figure for 2027 has been announced.

At an industry convention on Nov. 3, SMM reported that Septian Hario Seto, a member of Indonesia’s National Economic Council, supported using annual work plans to reduce nickel output. He said Indonesia’s growing production had contributed to a global oversupply and driven prices lower. This view also had support elsewhere in the government.

The 2026 quota has changed markedly. It was initially set at 260 million to 270 million metric tons of ore, roughly one-third less than the 379 million tons approved for 2025. Director General Tri Winarno approved a revision in October, which SMM then estimated at about 290 million tons. In reports dated Nov. 4, SMM put the revised allocation at 295 million to 300 million wet metric tons, giving smelters more ore than the original allocation provided.

Beginning in 2026, cobalt exports from Congo will be capped at 96,600 tons annually under a framework established by the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets (ARECOMS). The cap consists of a base allocation of 87,000 tons and a strategic export allocation of 9,600 tons set aside for ARECOMS, though the framework allows these amounts to be adjusted. Exporters must pay a 10% royalty before customs clearance. Any monthly allocation left unused will be transferred to the strategic quota, which ARECOMS said is intended to support projects of national importance.

Glencore did not quantify how much each factor contributed to the decline in its own-sourced cobalt production. In its third-quarter production report, released Oct. 29, the company said output from January through September was 13,700 tons, down 52% from 28,500 tons in the same period of 2025, citing “the ongoing DRC cobalt export quota regime and a continued focus on copper production.” The figures show the quota’s impact on producers, alongside that of other factors. Glencore also said it is retaining some cobalt in solution rather than processing it into saleable hydroxide, expecting to realize its value as export regulations evolve.

• Cobalt prices fell in the third quarter as DRC-origin shipments increased and downstream buying remained weak, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
• Cobalt hydroxide delivered to Asia fell 31% over the quarter to $17.25 per pound.
• Chinese cobalt sulphate fell nearly 30%, according to the firm's third-quarter cobalt price review.
• George Ingall, the firm's senior price analyst, wrote that sellers were unwilling to transact below $20.00/lb as the market fell into a stalemate.

Government decisions affecting ore or hydroxide availability can have downstream effects through supplier contracts. Cathode and cell makers must then assess whether they can meet delivery commitments at agreed prices and how much of any cost increase to pass on. In other manufacturing chains this year, inconsistent cost pass-through has already put supplier finances under pressure.

Mineral Supply as Economic Insurance

The risk is not limited to raw-material prices. In a July 16 statement accompanying the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, Executive Director Fatih Birol called diversified mineral supply “a form of economic insurance against major supply risks.”

Export and production restrictions have become routine price-management tools for both governments, rather than emergency responses. In Congo, the cap is accompanied by advance royalty payments and a regulator-controlled reserve. Indonesia, meanwhile, ties its quota to smelter capacity and excess supply. Companies are adapting as well: Glencore is keeping cobalt in solution as export rules continue to change.

For U.S. buyers, these developments now coincide with Washington’s post-election critical minerals calendar. Key signals will include Indonesia’s approval of its 2027 work plans, which has not yet been scheduled, and any adjustment to Congo’s 96,600-ton cap or release of reserve volumes. Fourth-quarter price reviews should indicate whether quotas are beginning to lift prices or whether soft battery demand continues to absorb the cuts.