European steel market faces mounting pressure

As the final quarter approaches, weak demand, elevated energy prices, and tighter import limits are weighing on Europe’s steel market. Since taking effect on 1 July 2026, new EU rules have cut steel import quotas by approximately 47% and raised the tariff on imports exceeding those limits to 50%. The resulting higher costs and supply uncertainty are affecting exporters to Europe, including Turkish steel producers.

• Plate prices on 19 October were €840/t in Germany and €770/t in Italy.
• CRC prices were €840/t in Spain, €870/t in Poland, €850/t in Italy and €855/t in Germany.
• On an EXW basis, HDG prices were €840/t in Spain, €865/t in Poland, €835/t in Italy and €830/t in Germany.
• HRC prices were €750/t in Spain, €740–750/t in Italy and Poland, and €750/t in Germany.

Market uncertainty is mounting as geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes intensify. In Northern Italy, where many electric-arc furnace (EAF) steel mills are located, producers face a growing mismatch between high energy costs and weak demand. Unable to pass these higher costs on to customers, some mills may have to halt production.erm, however, reduced supply may have a greater influence on the market than demand.

Meanwhile, the imbalance between high energy costs and weak demand is deepening, particularly in Northern Italy, where electric-arc furnace (EAF) steel mills are concentrated. Producers are finding it increasingly difficult to pass rising costs on to customers, fueling concerns that some mills may be forced to suspend production. Geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes are adding to market uncertainty.

Outlook: Weak demand is expected to limit price increases in the short term, while the effects of import quotas on supply are likely to become more pronounced over time. Energy costs and a potential supply shortfall could be key drivers of price movements, particularly as the market approaches the second quarter of 2027.